COVID-19 – Charts

COVID-19 charts that I cannot find anywhere else.

This page is updated daily (generally between 10 a.m. and noon ET).

Perspective for the day

As I have repeatedly stressed, we should continue to expect the number of cases to dramatically and rapidly rise… This battle is going to be much harder, take much longer, and be much worse than almost anyone comprehends… I continue to urge the people of our state to stay in place at home and stay safe.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, 03/26/2020

The global perspective

A sobering statistic from the World Health Organization:

The number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 200,000. It took over three months to reach the first 100,000 confirmed cases, and only 12 days to reach the next 100,000.

WHO Situation Report 59, March 19, 2020

And just four days latter…

The number of COVID-19 cases surpassed 300,000 globally.

WHO Situation Report 63, March 23, 2020

The WHO’s Situation Report 65 for March 25, 2020 identifies the global number of COVID-19 cases as 413,467. It took 12 days to go from 100,000 to 200,000. It took 6 days to go from 200,000 to 400,000. If things continue along the same trajectory, we could see the the global number of confirmed cases go from 400,000 to 800,000 in the March 28th report – in just 3 days. Update! Good news is, the March 28th report only identifies 571,678 cases. The bad news, is, there are 571,678 cases.

When will it end?

The first vaccine trial has begun just 60 days after the genetic sequence of the virus was shared by China. This is an incredible achievement.

WHO Situation Report 60, March 20, 2020

From articles I have read (The Boston Globe, The Guardian, The Atlantic), if development of a vaccine progresses at lightening speed, it will take 12-18 months before initial availability. That would be March-September, 2021. It will take additional time before the vaccine is widely available. Initial distribution would, likely, be based on a prioritization scheme: healthcare workers, high risk populations, personnel in key critical infrastructure roles, etc.

Accordingly, I am inclined to agree with the chairman of the National Governor’s Association and Governor of the Great State of Maryland:

As I said yesterday, we are unfortunately only at the beginning of this crisis.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, March 20, 2020

Closer to home

I live in the DC area and want to know what the situation looks like locally. I’m not a fan of lists of numbers, or big red dots. They don’t tell me much. I want graphs showing changes over time. I want to see if things are trending better or worse.

Below are charts to help me ‘see’ what is happening. These are charts I cannot find anywhere else and compliment the other sources provided at the bottom of the post. The data is from credible sources, cited below.

More information is needed to make accurate risk assessments. At a minimum I would like…

Maryland – PLEASE publish deaths aggregated by age range.

CDC – PLEASE publish COVID-19 cases and deaths aggregated by age range.

On 3/27/2020, Charles, Frederick, Harford counties crossed the 15 case threshold, as did Carroll county on 3/29. As of 3/29/2020, Allegany and Dorchester remain the only counties in Maryland with no reported confirmed cases.

The above chart covers the Washington DC, Maryland, and Virginia region (the DMV). Specifically, it includes Washington DC and the Maryland and Virginia counties that are within a reasonable commuting radius of the city.

Maryland changed the way they provided case data by age range on 3/27. The chart above reflects the new data reporting.

Are preventing the spread?

The charts in this Section show NEW cases day over day. Ideally, these curves would bend toward zero.

Maryland changed the way they provided case data by age range on 3/27. The chart above reflects the new data reporting.

References and resources

Data sources for the charts above: